Egypt’s first climate fiscal risk statement puts a number on tns in state assets under review

EXCLUSIVE- Egypt has, for the first time, put a number on how climate change could hit the state’s balance sheet

IN CONTEXT- USD 273 mn USD 136 mn

Four sectors get a report card

The statement runs formal climate risk assessments on state assets across four priority sectors

Power and oil carry the heaviest exposure. carries EGP 3.134 tn in government guarantees

Water and renewables face a different kind of pressure.

Transport, aviation, and urban development:

Agriculture is the most exposed sector the statement leaves unquantified.

National projects get first test

The fiscal risk statement also included a climate stress test on EGP 27 bn worth of national projects.

All six came back rated low-to-moderate, driven mainly by exposure to sea-level rise, heat, and storms:

Risks for the PPP portfolio

Private capital is exposed too.

Benban Solar Park carries the portfolio’s only medium rating, exposed to prolonged cloud cover cutting output. New Alamein desalination plant

13 Build-Own-Operate renewable projects

Climate risk is becoming structural to how Egypt budgets.

Egypt’s already raised money on these terms first USD 750 mn sovereign green bond CNY 3.5 bn Panda bonds

REMEMBER- USD 1.45 bn 55% of total spending in FY 2025/26, with a target of 60% by FY 2026/27

The climate risk bill will come slowly.

Climate targets reaffirmed: 37% from electricity, 65% from oil and gas, and 7% from transport, alongside raising renewables to 42%