Oxford Economics sees faster growth ahead, conditional on a peace that could still fall apart

The global economy is set to pick up speed in the second half of 2026 — but only if the US-Iran truce holds.

Oxford Economics puts the odds of a durable US-Iran agreement at 50-50.

The supply chain exposure

Western AI investment has a strait-shaped vulnerability.

China benefited from the disruptions, but that won’t last.

New US tariffs are coming in July.

AND- Brussels and Beijing are heading for a collision.

What changes if the truce holds

Central banks get room to ease.

Several elections could reshape the picture heading into 2027.

The biggest upside risk to the global outlook is stronger-than-expected AI investment and productivity gains

MARKETS THIS MORNING

Asi a-Pacific markets are mixed in early trading this morning.

Interest rates (CBE)

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

VIX (Volatility Index)

The EGX30 rose 1.0% at yesterday’s close