MENA economy to shrink in 2026 before 6.5% rebound -BMI

BMI has pushed MENA recovery into 2027

The downgrade tracks a stickier Hormuz and a shift into what BMI calls “messy negotiations.”

Even a diplomatic breakthrough buys months, not weeks.

The divide comes down to one thing: whether a country can get its exports out through an alternative to Hormuz

In the contraction zone:

Countries with alternative export routes are projected to fare better.

The UAE falls somewhere in between.

MARKETS THIS MORNING

Asia-Pacific markets fell sharply in early trading this morning

Interest rates (CBE)

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

VIX (Volatility Index)

+12.2% (YTD: +25.6%)

The EGX30 fell 0.7% at yesterday’s close